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Author Topic: Daily Forex analysis and signals  (Read 8653 times)
ossy
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« on: May 13, 2007, 06:17:57 PM »

Hello Everyone,

I wish to start a thread here where i will basically share some trading ideas and daily currency analysis. Pls i wish to state am not a Forex Guru nor a Forex Professor and neither am i trying to sell any ebook or woteva.

This is strictly traders helping traders and i will appreciate positive contributions from others as we proceed. Over the course of time i have been able to make my trading career increasingly profitable and what i've learnt and am still learning is what i intend to share here.

Most of the trade ideas/signals i would be sharing are going to be swing signals(ie may possibly run into days). I suggest you demo the signals and if you wish to trade them live make sure you don's risk more than 2% of your account.

And talking about that i've found out from experience that the reason a lot of traders blow their account is purely because of poor money management, ok for instance if you have a trading capital of $500, sound money management would not permit your trading a mini account(1pip=$1) with that amount instead you should go for a micro account.

I suggest if you have a small trading capital you should look for a good broker that supports micro lots. While you may not get rich quick trading micro lots but atleast you will preserve your capital while perfecting your trading skills.

Well I do know you can get rich quick trading forex but i don't subscribe to that schoool of thought anyway because Forex is a real business and like all good business capital preservation and compounding overtime is supreme

Most people that come into forex with a get-rich-quick mentality always get burnt. But in the long run with good money management and sound trading skills you will definetly get rich in $ dollars not just Naira.. Grin

Ok i will be posting my currency analysis and trade ideas in my next post, am actually waiting for the market to open for the week but in the interim wanted to set the stage with this 1st post. Like i said earlier i will welcome strictly positive contributions from fellow traders that are in-line with the topic of discussion.
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trinitron00
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2007, 07:50:34 PM »

this is a very good idea we should all share what we know about forex i will be ready to assist but lets see what your first post will be like
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ossy
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2007, 08:50:12 PM »

Hello Everyone,

ok here we go:

Eur/JPY

last week eur/jpy took a major turn down south before it started reversing on friday. Now its currently @ 162.75. The market sentiment is strongly bullish which favours a further north advance.

Trade idea:

Long Eur/Jpy @ 162.80 - 162.95. Target 163.40
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ossy
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2007, 01:35:35 PM »

Hello Everyone,

Eur/Jpy

Our Eur/Jpy trade hit target today for a +60 pips profit. Remember  we Long Eur/Jpy @ 162.80 - 162.95. Target 163.40.

Thats a fantastic way to start this thread. Ok tomorrow we would be looking at a very simple strategy that the Institutions/Banks use to trade. And ofcourse i would be posting more signals as the trades develop. Happy Pipping!!!!
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ossy
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2007, 08:01:01 PM »

Hello Everyone,

GBP/USD

The pair Gbp/Usd has entered its sell zone and the market sentiment is strongly bearish so its time to sell.

Trade Idea:

Sell Gbp/USd @ 1.9855 - 1.9840.   Target 1.9790


And remember tomorrow we would be looking at a very profitable simple system that the banks favour as one of thier trading systems.

Happy Pipping!!
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ossy
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2007, 09:33:40 AM »

Hello Everyone,

GBP/USD

We would be moving up the target for our earlier called trade idea  ie: Sell Gbp/USd @ 1.9855 - 1.9840.   Target 1.9790. The new target is now @ 1.9810. Please adjust settings.

Happy Pipping!!!!
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ossy
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2007, 11:56:52 AM »

Hello Everyone,

GBP/USD

Our earlier called trade Sell Gbp/USd @ 1.9855 - 1.9840. Target 1.9810, has hit its target for a profit of +45 pips. Thats our second successful trade in a row and i hope someone is actually making money with this, because we are  Grin.

We would be calling more trade ideas as the trades develop, and shortly we would be looking at a very simple profitable system for both intraday and swing trading.

Happy Pipping!!
.
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trinitron00
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2007, 02:59:05 PM »

i am with you all the way in a demo at least lets see how far we can go with this i just wanted u to know that people are using your tips take care
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ossy
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« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2007, 05:43:41 PM »

Hello Everyone,

Eur/Jpy

The Eur/Jpy pair just had a sharp reversal and its strongly positioning for a serious south advance and presently the market sentiment is strongly bearish so its about time to sell again.

Trade Idea:

Sell Eur/Jpy @ 162.91 - 162.85.  Target  162.40



Hello Trinitron,

thanks so much for your feedback, am glad you are demo trading the signals.

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ossy
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« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2007, 06:31:01 PM »

Hello Everyone,

Ok, It's time to start looking at some forex systems that have been proven to give high probability trades over time.

Now i try as much as possible to keep my trading strategies as simple as possible or better put KISS ( Keep It Simple and Stupid)  Grin. I dont like having my chat full of indicators and making it look like a spider web besides most of the indicators we've today in forex that are flying around are basically lagging indicators and can't even do the job otherwise we would all have been millionaires.

So we would be looking at 3 high probability trades systems and also we would exhaustively look at News Trading. A lot of hype is flying around about news trading that it would be very easy for a beginner to think thats where the Holy Grail is, but the truth is the whole story about news trading is often not told, now i love trading the news though in recent times i only trade selected news and even at that i simply use it to cream my profits or to reposition my trades. Well thats that but there's wisdom in learning how to trade properly news or no news and funny enough the real pips are in the normal trading.

The Three Systems are

1. The Institutional System
2. The Pip Creamer
3. The Contrarian Trade

Ok we would begin with the Institutional system in the next post, so see you there and happy pipping!!!
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ossy
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2007, 03:49:29 AM »

Hello Everyone,

The Institutional System

This system is very simple and rather popular and it comes in different names and some of us might have met it before and if you have and swept it under the carpet i suggest you go get it out and take another look at it maybe possibly you will find it profitable this time because its very powerful.
This system uses only one indicator and that is Slow Stochastic which comes as a default indicator with most charting programmes eg metatrader. The rules of entry are based on Candle stick patterns and this helps you get into the trend ahead of other indicators we already said lag. Really their's a lot to be learnt from price actions as depicted in candle stick patterns. You can learn about candles sticks here: http://www.fxwords.com/j/japanese-candlesticks.html

Now you can trade this system on anytime frame and any any pair, I use 30 min candle chart the higher the time frame the less the noise.

As i said earlier the Indicator you need is Slow Stochastic with setting 8.3.3 on metatrader. Please note some platforms will only allow 8.3 and thats equally ok.

Next the key element of the system contained in all trades.

The INSIDE BAR. Is simply when the current bar is less than or equal to the bar to the left of it. The inside bar can also be the same size as the previous bar.

NOTE: The Inside Bar is a standard technical analysis pattern, however most people over look it and underestimate it. you can also use an Outside Bar which is the opposite and shown in the chart below.


Why the INSIDE BAR Is a very Powerful Setup!
Whenever you have an IB, the market is consolidating into a tight range of low volatility. A market will always explode out of a tight range.

How to trade

First look for an IB / OB to form then check if its a valid IB with the stochastic's indicator

When stochastic are below or around the 20 and oversold and starting to hook round look for an IB to go long, When stochastic are upto 80 and above and starting to hook round in overbought look for an IB to go short you will find them the best in trending markets also range bound markets but if the price action is choppy stay out.

The Stochastic's don't have to be exactly 80-20 but it is stronger signal if they are.

To enter a trade wait for the next bar after the IB to go up 1-2 pips higher than the IB for a buy signal or 1-2 pips lower for a sell signal. Use stochastic as a set up of when to trade the IB, also the shadow of the IB must be inside the prior bar as well in the overall size.

If after your IB you get another bar the same size as the IB and it doesn’t go 1-2 pips either way then you may look at up to 3 more bars after the IB bar to confirm a signal. If you don’t get one stand a side and wait for a new IB to form.
You can exit when Stochastic begins to curve downwards away from 80 in a long position or begins to curve upwards away from 20 in a sell position.
Also you can exit when target profit is hit.

I usually set my profit target to be 20 - 30 pips since i use it intraday and on 30mins chart. You can equally use a trailing stop.

Now when you load this up on your chart try and backtest it by flipping backwards to maybe last 2 months you will notice how profitable it would have been if you've been using it.

I have attached a chart to explain the entry positions ie the IB and OB (Inside Bar and Outside Bar).

Also those of you using Metatrader i have equally attached a template so all you need to do is save it at your templates folder in metatrader then call it up on your chart.

Pls anybody that has a question or needs better clarifications should be free to ask me as we proceed to the other systems. Happy Pipping!!!
« Last Edit: May 17, 2007, 04:24:59 AM by ossy » Logged
ossy
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2007, 04:00:51 AM »

Hello Everyone,

Here is the template for metatrader. Pls you will need to change the .txt extension to .tpl ie when you download it the file name would read Instititutional system.txt so you change it to Institutional system.tpl before it can work. (I changed the extension so that it can be attached as i noticed some files cant be attached here)

So after you have done that load it up in your templates folder in metatrader then call it up on your chart.

Happy Pipping!!!
« Last Edit: May 17, 2007, 04:06:05 AM by ossy » Logged
ossy
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« Reply #12 on: May 17, 2007, 10:19:01 AM »

Hello Everyone,

EUR/USD

The pair has moved up slightly after yesterdays decline and it has consolidated for a major move down south so its time to get ready to sell.

Trade Idea:

Sell Eur/Usd @ 1.3520 - 1.3510. Target 1.3470

Eur/Jpy

Our earlier call on Eur/Jpy is still waiting to be activated the pair is presently in an up and down swing while consolidating for a major move down south and we believe it will take us with it when it does.

Happy Pipping!!!
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danfx
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« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2007, 03:27:53 PM »

Dear Ossy,

Really appreciate your fine gesture of sharing your signals top all forex traders in the forum.Am most especially keen about your strategy you said you are using.I actually trying to download the template you posted on the forum but each time i made an attempt it will upload on a notepad but it will not show properly.S o am wondering if you can proffer a solution.By the way we have not been seeing any signal from you.

Thanks,

Dan
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ossy
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2007, 04:07:38 PM »

Hello Dan,

Thanks for your kind words, if you go back to my post where i attached the template i said it will open up as .txt ie why you are seeing it as a notepad document, then all you need is to rename the file or change the .txt extention to .tpl ie rename it to Institutional system.tpl and save. Then you can go ahead and load it in your metatrader templates folder.

I had to attach it as a notepad document because the forum does not permit attachments with .tpl extension, so i had to figure out this way and its simple enough once you understand it.

Then on the signals i have an Eur/Jpy trade i called which is yet not activated and i also called Eur/Usd earlier in the day which is still on as the Eur/Usd pair slightly pulled up for a final decent and ofcourse we believe it will will hit our target as it does.

I will be calling some trades shortly as they develop am actually glad someone is following and possibly making some money even if its demo money Grin
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